Aolain
enthusiast
Posts: 1191
Reg: 11-13-06
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02-07-12 01:56 PM - Post#145109
I just had an interesting discussion with a colleague who is a well-known expert on Middle Eastern affairs. My base question was, "what is going to happen re:Iran."
His answer, and our discussion, was quite enlightening. As is known, the situation in the Middle East is never as simple as Americans think it is; nor does it line up with the Democratic/Republican political discourse.
1) He feels that Israel may very well strike Iran before the election. He believes this because the Israelis understand that now is a good time to strike...and they cannot realistically allow a nuclear Iran.
2) Obama wishes to delay the strike (if there is one). With the election coming, any Israeli strike will at a minimum spike oil prices up dramatically. This will raise the price of gas and stall the economy. If this happens, he will quite probably lose the election. Conversely, some republicans would like to see a pre-election strike for just the same reasons.
3) One must remember the Sunni-Shiia split. Although the Sunni Arab leaders will decry an Israeli strike, and publicly condem it, they may, even now, be giving the green light to Israel. One thing places like Jordan and Saudi Arabia do not want is a power shift toward a nuclear armed Iran.
4) Turkey may be publicly battling with Israel, but behind the scenes (and so much of this as we know all happens behind the scenes) may encourage an Israeli strike.
5) Wild Card: Syria. If Syria falls, then the Iranian "in" with Hezbollah is gone. One could see an Israeli-Turkish invasion of a collapsing Syria to "restore" the situation.
6) This invasion might spark Iran to close the straits which will spark a strike on Iran.
7) Wild Card: The Iranian leadership. As is well-known, Imadinnerjacket is not the leader of Iran,despite what politicos and political parties say. What do the Mullahs think? If push comes to shove with Syria, they might well strike Israel and Turkey with rockets, nuclear or not.
8) Ultimate wild card: Israel. They know that now may be the time as Obama is desperate for votes, and to stand against Israel if it strikes will cause him to lose votes. In other words, there is a window of opportunity for Israel...weak Obama thinking about votes...GOP eager for something to hurt Obama re:votes....Arab states eager to knock Iran down several pegs....the very real possibility of a nuclear Iran in the future, something no one wants.....
Ultimately, my colleague is afraid Israel will strike. Once that happens, hard to tell what will follow.
What is certain, however, is that these events will be over-simplified to such a degree by politicians and much of the press (to make it understandable to the typical American) that the public discourse in this nation will have little bearing on the reality of events.
Edited by Aolain on 02-07-12 01:58 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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MissingChico
enthusiast
Posts: 2228
Reg: 02-13-06
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02-07-12 02:12 PM - Post#145110
In response to Aolain
Almost as if people in the background are attempting to self-fulfill Armageddon prophecy. It is a shame to once again point out we made THIS Iran when we toppled their centrist democracy to steal their oil. One of the few things about Ron Paul's campaign that isn't insane.
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carygold
enthusiast
Posts: 4941
Reg: 05-30-08
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02-08-12 09:52 AM - Post#145153
In response to MissingChico
That's was very interesting, I wish more Americans knew what the situation is in Middle East. Terrorist have built a US mindset that is incorrect.
Chico is right, this is our own doing, with the help of the British... all for oil. Imagine if instead of killing the elected leader of Iran in 1953 we form an alliance with them. Today, Iran would be one of our closest allies in the middle east.
The CIA agent to the middle east Robert Baer, wrote in his book the "Devil We Know," he said Iraq was the shield between, the Sunni-Shiia. Bush empowered Iran taking out Saddam Hussein. Then he solidified their resolve to create a nuclear weapon with the "axis of evil" speech.
Now that that shield is gone, attacking Iran will trigger Iranian missiles to be launched at Saudi oil fields because Iran knows it will collapse the economy of the US. Bear said that 4 years ago. He also said if bombed by Israel, Iran will shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
Iran saw how quickly we destroyed Iraq, a country they fought for 8 years ending in a stale mate. They know the only way to keep America from attacking Iran is to have a nuclear weapon. They know if Gaddafi had a nuke he would still be in power.
This recording was made in October 2008.
ex- CIA Agent Robert Baer Interview Middle East
I think fear the Iranian's development of a nuclear weapons, less than the Israel's eagerness to draw the US into war with a country that could collapse the global economy.
This is one place Paul Ryan is right on the money, we need to stop meddling in other countries politics...although this time it may be too late.
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