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Username Post: Moderate Risk today 3/19        (Topic#19664)
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-19-12 07:11 AM - Post#146736    

NWS has placed us in the Moderate Risk area for today, which covers a large area from extreme southwestern Texas through our area into southern OK. A very widespread weather event is expected today with multiple storm modes and several rounds of them expected. The largest threats to our area are expected to be heavy rains (up to 3-4 inches), hail and damaging winds. There is also a higher tornado risk today than there was yesterday so that will bear watching as well.

If you are planning on travelling anywhere today or tonight, be mindful of the possibility of flash flooding and the high winds. Make sure you secure any lawn furniture or light yard gear like trampolines before heading out for work today.

As always, make sure your weather alarms are on and in alert mode today and pay close attention to your favorite weather forecast before heading out anywhere. Updates will be posted here today as the day progresses. Expect several rounds of weather that could be changing from this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Categorical Risks:
Wind: 45%
Hail: 30%
Tornado: 10%


 
cp 
enthusiast
Posts: 195

Reg: 12-14-11

03-19-12 09:27 AM - Post#146745    
    In response to Maurice

Maurice, I appreciate your weather posts on here. It never fails that I would see something posted by you when we're expecting some kind of weather event.

I'm curious. Do you listen to the storm chasers/HAM radio ops around here? Back in the mid- to late-90s I used to pick them up on a police scanner that I still have today, but the last few years I can't pick them up. And I'm wondering if something has changed with their frequency.

Anyone who might know that can tell me, I'd appreciate.

In the meantime, the NWS office in Fort Worth and Steve MacCauley from Ch 8 keep me well-informed with their frequent updates through social media.
"In religion and politics people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination..." -Samuel Langhorne Clemens, better known as Mark Twain


 
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-19-12 10:25 AM - Post#146750    
    In response to cp

Yes, I do keep an ear on the local spotters as well as keeping tabs on the electronic spotter network in my radar along with other data feeds. You should still be able to pick up the Collin County ARES on 147.18 I believe is the freq.

Definitely be paying close attention today, this break in the clouds was something I was hoping wouldn't happen. That will allow for heating which will create instability which in turn will create greater severe weather chances. Looks like it's going to be a long night.

Looks like the potential is increasing for damaging winds and large hail along with some tornadoes. Here's hoping it bypasses us but I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing some rough weather on and off all night into tomorrow.


 
civicminded 
Community Guide
Posts: 9243

Loc: Lone Star State
Reg: 04-24-02

03-19-12 03:42 PM - Post#146779    
    In response to Maurice

The line is still marching towards us, and the winds have been unforgiving here at work with many calls for power lines and fires. We keep losing power at the firehouse, and now we're hoping they can get a battery here for the generator before the boom hits, haha. And I keep thinking of my flying fence in Allen, 30 miles away!!!! Y'all keep watching the weather.

And be reminded the weather classes are almost over for this year.


 
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-19-12 03:45 PM - Post#146781    
    In response to Maurice

NWS has placed us under a Tornado Watch until 10PM this evening. Right now it appears the tornado chances are low but they are still there, the main threats will be heavy rain, possibly large hail and strong downburst winds.

The main line is still working its way towards us but luckily there have not been any discrete cells popping up ahead of this line, those cells could prove to be more possible tornado production. As it is now, it appears the storms have stayed in a line and they are bowing out in some areas which is indicative of straight line wind strength. Remember, even in a squall line we could see an embedded tornado, which is what happened when we had the EF-1 tornado here in Allen back in April of 2008.

Stay tuned to your favorite local weather forecast tonight and if you are heading out this evening, pay close attention to possible flooding on the roadways along with the very gusty winds. I'll be out myself this evening until about 8:30 but should be able to post updates after that.

Also, be prepared for possible power outages as these strong winds have been knocking power out to our west.


 
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-19-12 09:20 PM - Post#146793    
    In response to Maurice

Well, luckily the cap held things in check today and we didn't get any problems ahead of the squall line which is what we're enjoying right now.

NWS has placed us under a Flash Flood Warning for all of Collin County and Dallas County, so be very careful of any standing water (it could be deeper than you think) and any fast moving water.

BE CAREFUL when driving tonight or tomorrow as this line is essentially going to sit on us for quite some time as it trains to our north, dumping a LOT of water on us. Thankfully we're not having to deal with high winds, those have abated but this rain will be problematic but we DO need it to help the lakes!


 
Arcturus 
enthusiast
Posts: 226

Reg: 05-11-10

03-20-12 07:53 AM - Post#146796    
    In response to Maurice

Thanks for the info. Your posts are the first thing I look for when bad weather is on its way.

 
cp 
enthusiast
Posts: 195

Reg: 12-14-11

03-20-12 08:55 AM - Post#146797    
    In response to Maurice

  • Maurice Said:
Yes, I do keep an ear on the local spotters as well as keeping tabs on the electronic spotter network in my radar along with other data feeds. You should still be able to pick up the Collin County ARES on 147.18 I believe is the freq.

Definitely be paying close attention today, this break in the clouds was something I was hoping wouldn't happen. That will allow for heating which will create instability which in turn will create greater severe weather chances. Looks like it's going to be a long night.

Looks like the potential is increasing for damaging winds and large hail along with some tornadoes. Here's hoping it bypasses us but I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing some rough weather on and off all night into tomorrow.



I was listening to Dallas PD last night while the storms were approaching. I switched over to the HAM freqs but didn't pick up anything on 147.18 or 146.88. However, I did hear some convos on 145.21, 147.060, and 147.660. None were weather- or RACES-related...
"In religion and politics people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination..." -Samuel Langhorne Clemens, better known as Mark Twain


 
shiraz 
enthusiast
Posts: 522

Loc: allen, tx, usa
Reg: 05-23-02

03-20-12 10:13 AM - Post#146801    
    In response to cp

does anyone have local rainfall totals?

 
mspam3 
enthusiast
Posts: 2193

Loc: Allen TX
Reg: 03-10-07

03-20-12 12:09 PM - Post#146812    
    In response to shiraz

We got 3.5 inches in the Cottonwood area.

 
LowGear 
enthusiast
Posts: 278

Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 01-12-06

03-20-12 06:22 PM - Post#146853    
    In response to shiraz

4.6" here

 
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-21-12 06:35 AM - Post#146858    
    In response to Arcturus

Thanks, glad to help! :)


 
Maurice 
Community Expert
Posts: 3980
Maurice
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01

03-21-12 06:36 AM - Post#146859    
    In response to cp

It's been weird lately, I've had troubles getting their feed as well and it's full of static when I do. I pretty much have to unsquelch completely to get a read on them.


 
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