_Jim
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Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 11:40 AM - Post#152789
Slight Risk 8/12/12 today, Saturday.
More details can be found in the discussion by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center Static map and discussion): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/arch ive/2...
Let me excerpt this part as it relates to the timing:
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG WRN/SRN FRINGES OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.
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_Jim
member
Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 01:20 PM - Post#152793
In response to _Jim
And so it begins - the first Mesoscale Discussion of the day (for Texas):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1786.html
Here's the nut:
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN OK AND NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 20-21Z (3 to 4 PM CDT). TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
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_Jim
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Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 02:33 PM - Post#152800
In response to _Jim
First Severe T-storm watch issued (areas to the west and north of Tarrant and Denton counties):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0584 .html
Areas:
FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
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_Jim
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Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 04:07 PM - Post#152803
In response to _Jim
Just another quick note - heavy, heavy rain off to our north and west and moving this way ...
NWS Ft. Worth office says:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FWD&i...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
COOKE COUNTY
SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY
AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF GAINESVILLE TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOCONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE:
CALLISBURG .. COLLINSVILLE .. DORCHESTER .. GAINESVILLE .. GUNTER .. LINDSAY .. MUENSTER...ST. JO ... WHITESBORO .. FORESTBURG AND RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH.
PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
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_Jim
member
Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 05:14 PM - Post#152804
In response to _Jim
An incredible amount of rain is showing on RADAR around to our south, west and northwest ... yet very little in Allen proper, but that is going to change shortly ...
Also, another Mesoscale Discussion has been issued by the SPC for that area out to our west:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1787.html
The gist:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WHILE ISOLATED SVR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WW AREA...THE OVERALL THREAT IS RATHER MARGINAL.
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_Jim
member
Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 05:58 PM - Post#152805
In response to _Jim
Finally just now seeing some actual rain coming down ... even though RADAR shows it in the area!
Heaviest band of rain showing through Dallas county and northwest up through Denton at the moment ...
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MissingChico
enthusiast
Posts: 2640
Reg: 02-13-06
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08-18-12 06:13 PM - Post#152806
In response to _Jim
This could easily be the best August weekend I've experienced yet in my ten years in Texas. Sitting on the patio watching this weather reminds me of the NorCal coastline. If my sons dog hadn't already fouled my grass, I'd be dancing in the rain.
Don't ever forget, a fee is a tax of another name.
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_Jim
member
Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 06:22 PM - Post#152807
In response to MissingChico
No kidding! Whodda thunk it that we could ever see 71 degrees at 6 PM in the afternoon in the middle of August in Texas!
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_Jim
member
Posts: 52
Reg: 05-01-08
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08-18-12 10:07 PM - Post#152809
In response to _Jim
Make that _under_ 70 degrees in mid August in Texas ... showing 69.something at 10:06 PM ...
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jogo
enthusiast
Posts: 1351
Reg: 08-31-05
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08-18-12 10:31 PM - Post#152811
In response to _Jim
It's pretty amazing to have the windows open on an August night!
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