carygold
enthusiast
Posts: 5353
Reg: 05-30-08
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09-29-12 01:47 PM - Post#155316
At the beginning of the civil war, Governor Sam Houston opposed the state of Texas seceding from the Union. The cotton farmers of North Texas voted to split from the union and drove out Sam Houston as governor. Texas joined the civil war and the Southern democratic party. Texas remaind democrat into the 1930's and supported FDR for four terms as a Democratic state. IN the 1970's as the Southern Democrats fled to the Republican party and African American's moved to the Democratic party, the state of Texas was majority republican and turned into what would be called a red state by 1980.
Sam Houston was from Democratic South Texas, which is still pretty much blue in political affiliation to this day. The hispanic community is growing, and many white people are no longer driven by the fear brought about by the republican "Southern Strategy." Times are changing.
It is possible that Texas will soon be a blue state. Watch the popular vote in Texas this year... see how blue it is getting.
Why Texas May Become a Blue State
If CEO's increased their pay at the same rate as Average Americans
their pay would average $1,384,890 not $10,621,000 |
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weblady
member
Posts: 78
Reg: 10-27-06
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09-29-12 02:13 PM - Post#155318
In response to carygold
I believe Texas will eventually become a blue state, in large part because of the ever increasing Latino population. It might not turn this go round, but I see the next election cycle to start to get interesting. I for one would like to vote in an election that was contested. Right now our local politics are pure republican, no challengers, except of the same party and same platform. It is beginning to feel like less of democracy without a real two (or more) party system. Check your local ballot and you will see what I mean. The primary was a prime example, only one party represented and not much to choose from there at all. I can't wait for Texas to become a swing state, at least it will get more attention and more candidates to choose from.
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carygold
enthusiast
Posts: 5353
Reg: 05-30-08
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09-30-12 10:42 PM - Post#155348
In response to weblady
Just as an interesting note here are the numbers for the Presidential Election for Texas in 2008...
We can compare numbers after the election. I'm sure Romney will win Texas but lets see if the numbers change.
John McCain........GOP.......4,467,748.......55.5%
Barack Obama.....Dem.......3,521,164.......43.8%
Bob Barr..............Lib...............56,398.......0.7%
If CEO's increased their pay at the same rate as Average Americans
their pay would average $1,384,890 not $10,621,000 |
Edited by carygold on 09-30-12 10:43 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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r75002
enthusiast
Posts: 463
Reg: 06-03-06
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09-30-12 11:05 PM - Post#155350
In response to carygold
I don't see it being much different this year unless the hispanic vote is larger than in the past. I think we've reached the point demographically where the hispanic vote can decide an election in Texas if it wants to.
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MissingChico
enthusiast
Posts: 2640
Reg: 02-13-06
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10-01-12 07:12 AM - Post#155355
In response to r75002
I'm curious how the Red vs Blue breaks down in Texas. Is Southern Texas primarily the Blue area, or is it mostly urban vs suburban? I haven't felt anything close to a 55 / 43 split in North Texas although I've seen quite a larger number of Obama signs hung inside windows this year.
Don't ever forget, a fee is a tax of another name.
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Allennewguy
member
Posts: 93
Reg: 09-10-12
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10-01-12 07:29 AM - Post#155356
In response to MissingChico
I'm curious how the Red vs Blue breaks down in Texas. Is Southern Texas primarily the Blue area, or is it mostly urban vs suburban? I haven't felt anything close to a 55 / 43 split in North Texas although I've seen quite a larger number of Obama signs hung inside windows this year.
The blue areas of Texas are mostly the Southern border counties and large urban areas. Austin, of course has for years been a blue dot in a very red state, but Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio have been catching up fast. Dallas County itself was slowly trending. In 2000 Bush won with 52% to 45% for Gore. In 2004, even closer with Bush at 50% to 49% for Kerry. Obama won Dallas County 57% to 42% for McCain in 2008. Collin County has a ways to go still, but Dallas County is pretty much blue now.
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carygold
enthusiast
Posts: 5353
Reg: 05-30-08
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10-01-12 08:42 AM - Post#155363
In response to Allennewguy
This Texas Map shows the breakdown by county based on the 2008 Presidential vote.
This Map shows a comparison between 2004 and 2008, which really means little as far as a trend since its only one election.
If you will notice not only are the boarder counties blue but so are many of the most populated counties in the state, Dallas County, El Paso County, Bexar County (San Antonio) and Harris County (Houston).
Unfortunately, we cannot see the percentages in each county in an easy to read map and there are attempts to redistrict so who knows what will happen.
I think we will see the blue grow on the I-35 corridor, as the population grows, this next election, but I doubt we will see a blue Texas until around 2020.
This website shows the national shift since 1996 to 2008 has been to the red, so maybe there is just a natural pendulum swing the other direction as well as a demographic swing.
If CEO's increased their pay at the same rate as Average Americans
their pay would average $1,384,890 not $10,621,000 |
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Allennewguy
member
Posts: 93
Reg: 09-10-12
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10-01-12 08:47 AM - Post#155364
In response to carygold
This Texas Map shows the breakdown by county based on the 2008 Presidential vote.
This Map shows a comparison between 2004 and 2008, which really means little as far as a trend since its only one election.
If you will notice not only are the boarder counties blue but so are many of the most populated counties in the state, Dallas County, El Paso County, Bexar County (San Antonio) and Harris County (Houston).
Unfortunately, we cannot see the percentages in each county in an easy to read map and there are attempts to redistrict so who knows what will happen.
I think we will see the blue grow on the I-35 corridor, as the population grows, this next election, but I doubt we will see a blue Texas until around 2020.
This website shows the national shift since 1996 to 2008 has been to the red, so maybe there is just a natural pendulum swing the other direction as well as a demographic swing.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ is a great resource for the election totals and you can see county percentages there on Presidential, Gubernational, and Senatorial races. You're right that we probably won't go blue until 2020, but I could see us becoming a swing state prior to that. I think a Democrat winning the Governor's race here in the next 2 cycles is a strong possibility.
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r75002
enthusiast
Posts: 463
Reg: 06-03-06
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10-01-12 01:19 PM - Post#155390
In response to Allennewguy
Only if hispanics decide they want to vote, and continue to vote democratic.
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