Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 07:24 AM - Post#161070
We are in the Moderate Risk category today, similar to what OK was in yesterday. This does not mean we will definitely see what OK had yesterday with the tornadoes they had but it does mean that we are expected to have severe weather. Tornadoes are obviously everyone's concern given the past weeks activity and yes, any discrete cell that is able to spin up will have a good potential to produce a tornado and in this environment, it could be strong to significant.
Everyone must have their weather radios on and in alert mode today, while paying very close attention to their favorite weather broadcast. The biggest concerns for us should be after lunch when supercells may start to form and any that do pop up, will most likely go severe very fast. These are the cells that are concerning as they can quickly mature and produce strong tornadoes. So, this afternoon be paying VERY close attention to the sky and weather broadcasts. Bring in any lawn furniture that could be potentially damaging due to high winds. Be very mindful of the sky after lunch and through your commute home. Updates will be posted as necessary.
Know where your safe areas are in your home, in your school and in your place of work today. NWS is expecting a Significant Severe Weather Outbreak today across North Texas, so please heed any warnings you hear.
Categorical Risks:
Hail: 45%
Wind: 30%
Tornado: 10% (hatched area)
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 09:55 AM - Post#161080
In response to Maurice
Here's a weather briefing from NWS with regards to todays expected severe weather outbreak. Please pay VERY close attention to the sky today, this is a potentially dangerous situation IF discrete super cells fire up ahead of the line, they will go severe quickly and are likely to produce strong, possibly long track tornadoes. Not saying this to scare anyone but to implore everyone to take this situation seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_ embed...
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
|
05-21-13 09:55 AM - Post#161081
In response to Maurice
Here is a picture of the 10% hatched area for tornadoes, which you can see has us squarely in it.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1 probo...
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 10:36 AM - Post#161085
In response to Maurice
We are under a Tornado Watch until 7PM. We have a High Risk for Wind and a Moderate Risk for Tornadoes of all levels, F0 and above.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 12:11 PM - Post#161087
In response to Maurice
The good news is that we're still under cloud cover, this does help since there is no capping inversion in place overhead to stop storms from firing. The cloud cover will limit daytime heating which works in our favor but we'll still have a concern with the damaging winds as this event unfolds.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 01:25 PM - Post#161090
In response to Maurice
So far no real supercell threat, which is a good thing. The line seems to be coming together and is riding the cold front, with a severe warning on the Denton cell. So far Collin County is clear from any significant weather right now.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 01:57 PM - Post#161093
In response to Maurice
Severe thunderstorm warning for Collin County. Looks like it's all linear at this point with everything congealing together. Expect strong winds, one gust reported by spotters in Denton at 73MPH. Lightning, thunder and wind look to be the main threats as the line will limit spinups.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 02:47 PM - Post#161095
In response to Maurice
Everything's worked out very well for us today, all we have now is a linear rain maker over head. After that we should be ok. Thankfully for us, the cloud cover never lifted otherwise it could have been a much more explosive afternoon. Glad to get only rain!
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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05-21-13 03:33 PM - Post#161096
In response to Maurice
Ok, show's over for us folks! :)
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