Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 01:59 AM - Post#167571
We are in the Slight Risk area for today but the latest information coming from the NWS also has us in the Elevated Risk or hatched area for severe weather. This is an area that extends from southern OK into North Texas including the DFW Metroplex. First we'll talk about the Slight Risk which is as I mentioned in my other post, we have a very good chance of seeing large hail and damaging winds with any storms that do fire up and go severe. So be mindful of that today and make arrangements to bring cars in the garage. If we stay cloudy through the day, this threat minimizes so keep that in mind.
Now to the Elevated Risk. This is an area that extends from southern OK from about Atoka down through North Texas into Kaufman county. We are in the lower portion of this area, so this does mean we need to be watching how the day progresses. If the rain that we're expecting this morning continues into the afternoon hours and clouds stay in place, the cap should hold and storm development chances will diminish and we can just enjoy some much needed rain or maybe just an overcast day.
However, IF the cap erodes due to the morning rain and clouds clear out and we have clear skies, daytime heating will contribute to storms firing up and breaking through the cap, if this happens then we will need to pay very close attention to the weather. This Elevated Risk area is where the NWS is expecting up to severe storms to be problematic with baseball sized hail, damaging winds and tornadoes with the chance for a significant tornado. This is similar to what happened last Thursday night where the cap broke and storms developed quickly to severe criteria and there was hail in many locations along with a couple of tornadoes.
As I said, this is ALL dependent on breaking the cap but the biggest indicator of that potential will be the afternoon hours. If the clouds stay in place, the chances are low that we'll see bad storms. If the clouds clear out and we warm up, then the chances increase significantly that we will be impacted by the above mentioned weather. Make sure that your yards are clear of items that can be blown around in the wind and that you have plans on getting your cars under cover, if necessary. Also be sure your weather radios are on and in alert mode, new batteries are in your radios and you tune into your favorite weather broadcast to stay aware of the weather situation tomorrow. Updates will be posted here through the day as necessary, stay safe everyone!
Categorical Threats:
Wind: 15%
Hail: 15%
Tornado: 10% (isolated strong tornadoes are possible)
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Community Manager
member
Posts: 97
Reg: 08-20-13
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04-13-14 02:17 AM - Post#167572
In response to Maurice
Thank you!
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 10:24 AM - Post#167574
In response to Community Manager
Well, the good news is the NWS has decreased our tornado threat to 5% from 10% but we are still in the elevated risk area with the biggest concern being large hail. We'll have to see how the afternoon plays out, as I said in the first post. If clouds stay around that will inhibit storm development which limits the chance for severe weather.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 03:14 PM - Post#167576
In response to Maurice
We're seeing clearing to the west, so that means heating will kick in, we're also seeing storms begin to fire along the dry line. We'll have to see how things develop over the next few hours.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 04:07 PM - Post#167578
In response to Maurice
So far the cap seems to be staying in place but we'll have to see if it holds, if it does it will cut off the surface based portions of the severe storms and only elevated storms will remain which just means rain and we could definitely use the rain. :)
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 05:23 PM - Post#167579
In response to Maurice
NWS has issued a Tornado Watch until midnight for all of N/NE Texas into Arkansas. So far, only a couple of severe cells to our west but the atmosphere is juicy enough for things to get fueled well. Again, be sure to stay aware of the weather conditions outside and ensure your weather radios are on and in alert mode and keep tabs on things with your favorite weather broadcast.
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 05:49 PM - Post#167580
In response to Maurice
Update at 5:50, it looks like the cap appears to be holding as the severe cells that were headed our way just went bust and dissipated.
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hollowel
enthusiast
Posts: 189
Reg: 01-29-07
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04-13-14 08:09 PM - Post#167581
In response to Maurice
Thank you for the updates I've been watching you more than the news
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bk1995
newbie
Posts: 11
Reg: 11-15-13
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04-13-14 09:06 PM - Post#167582
In response to Maurice
Thank you for all the updates. 
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-13-14 10:26 PM - Post#167583
In response to bk1995
Glad to help. :)
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civicminded
Community Guide
Posts: 9576
Loc: Lone Star State
Reg: 04-24-02
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04-14-14 06:04 AM - Post#167584
In response to Maurice
Glad to be in DFW this morn and not Amarillo! Did you see that stuff!
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Maurice
Community Expert
Posts: 4107
Loc: Allen, TX
Reg: 12-03-01
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04-15-14 08:43 AM - Post#167616
In response to civicminded
Yea, crazy weather! :)
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